The $SPY found some support the last trading day of what ended up to be worst performing quarter for the index in 9 quarters. We are certainly not out of the woods. My guestimate is we rally a little more into the 265 area as there is still bullish momentum in the 1 hour RSI and also below various Ichimoku resistance levels on the daily. We will find some channel resistance of this previous down leg around the 265 area and still have all moving indicators, other than the 200 SMA, acting as resistance now as well.
We needed some consolidation as after some failed attempts to break down below the 200 the shorts were all piled in and that aided in part to the squeeze up we saw Thursday.
Longer term, unless the SPY can garner a base above the 21day SMA and the 280 vertical level, Wags bias is the the downside. Looking back 10 years to the start of this massive bull rally, a pullback the at least the 23% Fib retracement level would only be considered a minor and healthy correction and that level is still over 10% away at 234.86.