Rough October for investors. The majors had their worse months since the Financial Crisis. Short term (weeks) I feel the markets will likely consolidate off of oversold levels. Using the S&P 500 ETF that tracks the index, SPY,  a likely consolidation could grind the SPY to a resistance level around the 280 level and follow a similar wave pattern down to the 38% Fibonacci Retracement and then eventually the 61%. Why the 61%? Not only is that a very strong Fib level but it also lines up perfectly with the peak of the two prior bubbles. These should act as a strong support area and the markets like to test broken resistance levels and the validity that they are now support levels. The markets really never did this given the magnitude of decade’s long importance of this area. 

 

We drop ~10% and the media goes crazy.  We drop below the 200 day moving average and everybody is complacent with buying the dip.  

We dropped to the 200 day moving average in Feb.  I was there for the bounce.  We dropped again in April, and I was there.  I called it here actually.  I was a buyer.  We moved up, and tagged the 200 day again in May, but higher than our level in April, because we had created support.    

We had some interesting times after that but climbed higher and eventually made new highs. We were chugging along and doing well until Wags recognized there was a rising wedge forming in the S&P.  We see that below: 

When we broke, surely we were going down and the chat room was on it.  The passed the 21, 50, 100, and then 200 day moving average lines.  We passed support after support level and the market dgaf.  The media goes crazy and spews out hyperbole that about this being one of the worst losses ever…and others I saw were just buying up shit with no technical analysis whatsoever.  

Both are wrong.  We’re halfway to bear territory, so the media needs to STFU.  We are at the beginning of earnings season and if earnings come out better than expected, this chart may just break to the upside.  Remember, there’s an election going on soon too…If it goes the way that market makers want, that may also break your shit and we might go up.  

For those buying THIS dip…I noted above that the market has dropped to this area before.  We’ve closed below the 200 dma, twice.  We have opened below and closed above, but we closed twice below the 200 dma during that period. Today, was our 3rd day closing below the 200 day moving average.  That’s…a little concerning. 

 

On Thursday, when we dropped, the buyers were NOT there.  That wick was not as powerful as we’ve seen before.  On Friday, the buyers were NOT there.  Not even at the close.  It was weak.  I had called in our chat.  I was long, and we got the bounce at the end of the day, but just where and how we ended.  Something did not smell right.  

Today was a fake out as well.  Weak and choppy conditions.  So ya, I’m hesitant to call this a bottom. I’m not quite shorting, but I’m not quite going long and walking away.  Time to be nimble and time to practice and practice discipline.  Trade the shapes you know and don’t overtrade.