US wants to tariff the world and its main target is China.  The technicals say that China has it much worse than we do. This will be a war where everybody loses. 

While I’m a pure technical trader, I find the news lately very interesting. People think that China can beat us at a trade war. After the move today in the SP500, even though China will be the bigger loser, we look like we’re setting up for a loss too.

I remember when Republicans were for free trade.  I remember in college debating a ton of liberals the benefits of free trade.  If we would have entered a trade war with China and we had entered the TPP, we would have the backing of other countries in Asia Pacific setting us up for a pretty big win and stifling China.  Instead, we decided to go the populist route and get out of TPP.  While China gets the upper hand in the global war games, they will feel the pain we inflict on them.  

If we look at the large cap ETF for China, we see that this week we broke the uptrend channel.  They’re dropping, and pretty hard.  We should hit the first blue line and maybe bounce from there, but I see us going to the lower blue line.  We’re already at a 24% drop from the highs and the drop I see coming is an additional 10%.  Holy shit, China is fucked.  China does have something up its sleeve that Wags and I were talking about in the chat today, and that is devaluation.  Those fuckers are going to devalue their currency and it will be their only option.  With a strong dollar and higher prices (due to tariffs), it looks like we’re out to fuck the rest of the world, so it may be a trick that has promising upside for the Chinese. Time will tell. 

As for where we are…

We broke the top half of the trend.  Funny how this is lining up as we are on the way to hit the blue line.  We should (0 guarantees in life) bounce up from there.  With that said, Wags was pretty enlightening today as he saw something I didn’t.  Sometimes I can be human and miss shit, but he saw a pattern in the works that many traders trade. 

Holy shit it’s a head and shoulders on the daily! Why is it traded? Because it’s a 55% chance of reaching it’s target.  Too bad for investors….its target is to the downside.  If you see the blue line, it not only acts as support, but it also acts as a neckline for the pattern.  We’re stupid for charging tariffs.  We’re stupid for walking away from free trade deals where we can exploit cheap labor and get quality products at a great deal.  For an administration that likes to tie itself to the market, it is stupid to do so. If the market is going to catch up to fundamentals…I would distance myself from it.  You cannot go up a few hundred points on the Dow and yell “MAGA!”, followed by steep losses and say, “We’re in this for the long run.”  It doesn’t work like that.  

I’m currently short looking to close a lot into the blue line.  I will be shorting into strength on the bounce.  Stops above the head.  The shittiest part about this is that the left shoulder was over 3 weeks of trading.  If the right should takes the same amount to form, it will be a choppy and boring 3 weeks.  It will also make sense because of the summer break in trading.  This will bring us to sell off just before Europe takes off for holiday in the month of August.  

Come join the chat and talk to Wags and me and a few other traders about the market and also grab some great shorts like I was giving out this afternoon. 

-RM 

Perception is all about time frames.  You may be right on a position, but it’s all about the time frame you trade in.  You may be right too early, and sometimes so early you can’t afford to be right.  

A lot of talk about the stock market going to shit has been happening for years.  You’ll hear a lot of shit talking and then when the market finally takes a shit, those that were short early on as the bulls ripped up will be saying, “I told you so.”  Some of them can afford it, but others can’t.  A good example of this is Bill Ackman and his short on Herbalife.  He had to close it at a loss as high as $740 million. 

So as I look at SPY/ES(futures) I see that we are obviously in an uptrend.  We’ve gone up ever since I called that I was looking for long opportunities. I was looking around the 2800 area on ES and we got close to 2796.  You can’t be too precise with targets because a lot of people see the same target and they try to get ahead of it.  The shorts got ahead of the 2800 area.  It was a good place to exit at gains, and now I’m looking to re-enter.  The direction is up for grabs. But let’s see the position we can swing on.  

As you can see on the daily chart above, we’re on the upper band of an uptrend.  The trend is your friend for the trend traders, so if you’re a trend trader, you should be BTFD!! (buying that fucking dip!) I’m a breakout trader…so I’m waiting for a break of a trend or range.  I know we need to go back to the blue line and look! It is at the top of the trend. My money is that we hit that that and from there, we breakout! Yay! New highs….

Ooooooooor we go back down from that spot, and the bulls get caught in a trap. Let’s not forget that next week is the start of earnings season, AND quite a bit of economic news is coming out in regards to trade and whatnot….soooooo we can go anywhere.  

Why time frames are important is that on the weekly, we have a rising wedge.  This has been a pattern that Wags and I have been capitalizing on lately.  Wags introduced me to shorting these shapes and I’m loving the new revenue stream.  On the weekly, you see that we’re getting close to the tightening area and it is right at the blue line on the daily chart where it should get tighter.  Most rising wedges end up in a nice short position and rarely, but sometimes, it shows a turn to the upside.   

I’m looking to go long above the blue line and to short of the rising wedge pattern on the weekly.  In the meantime, I’m riding the trend.  Keep in mind your timeframes and what you’re trading.  Don’t get too short too early or too long too early unless you can afford to be wrong for the timeframe.  Be flexible, be nimble, and most importantly, be profitable.  

-RM

$10 in 2 days?  You’re welcome.  LABU pays off when I call it live in the chat.  Risking very little, and gaining a ton is the kind of trade I like to make. 

It’s the kind of trade everybody likes to make, but rarely gets a chance to.  Pharma and bio stocks were in the news on Friday and I still honestly don’t know why.  I don’t pay attention to news because I’m a pure technical trader.  The news I don’t stick around for is earnings and fed minutes releases.  

During news like crude inventories or jobs #s, you will see “big” wicks up and down.  The market will go and take out tight stops around the area that it is in and it will then either a. move in the direction it was going to move to, but faster or b. move in the opposite direction and break the setup.  I trade in the bigger picture. I do have to go into the smaller picture to gauge my entry.  

On Thursday, I bought some LABU at $79 and it reached a good 1st tgt of $84.  On Friday, I saw it held $79…I was going to try again.  

Early morning trades are not something I usually do.  I will usually not trade the first 30 minutes of the market because just like those times I mentioned earlier, the bots are going crazy and trying to pick a direction.  After 30 minutes, everybody picks a direction and goes.  Sometimes though, the market will be set up to be in a position where I know what the direction is going to be before those 30 minutes.  Rarely, does that happen this early.  So I’m in. 

I got in as it was going to my spot.  I wanted it bad and it looked prime for picking.  When you see an opportunity like this, you gotta man up and be ready to fucking go.  You can’t wait because others will take your money.  I love this market because you have to know what you’re doing.  It’s a technical trader’s market.  It’s no longer the bull market we’re used to.  No more ,can an idiot pick a stock and it goes up.  You have to know how to read a fucking chart.  

So the day goes by, and nothing is happening. So fucking boring.  

Wags was OOO most of the day.  Nothing at all happening.  The market was taking a rest from the few days of kicking the bears’ asses.  When I checked back in near end of day to see how LABU was doing.  It was doing okay…setting up.  I took the opportunity and got some more.  

I’m in some more a little higher than what I got in at…and lo and behold.  

Followed by….

Something about Trump and news and whatnot, but whatever.  I was in this before our orange president said a fucking word and then after he shut the fuck up, we took off.  

$7 motherfucking dollars in a fucking day.  Followed by today with another $3.  LABU closed at 89.96 and I was buying that shit up starting at $79.50. All the buy points are above.  I’ll do this from time to time in the chat and just go off and throw in a nugget or 2 of pure genius.  Then shit will go the way I say it does and just respond with one of  my favorite gifs. 

 

-RM

TSLA reported earnings, BA got a stellar review this afternoon by Jim Cramer, and I’m getting ready to press my foot down on this market’s throat. 

This market continues to bore me.  I’m so fucking bored.  If you’re trading this shit and aren’t buying the dip, and selling the rip like I told you last Friday morning, “For now, just keep buying the dip and selling the rip.” then you’re experiencing lingchi (death by a 1000 cuts). 

I just realized today is Wednesday…wow these have been 4 of the longest fucking days ever!  So I almost never play earnings and how bored am I? Well today I decided to gamble a little on TSLA earnings. 

Let’s try a little here.

So apparently, TSLA shares are hard to locate and I could only get in on the small position.  Everybody wants to short TSLA, and it’s so crowded that when I want to stick the knife in some more and twist…I can’t. 

I then make my call like a batter going to bat and predicting where he’s going to hit the home run to.  

TSLA 15 Chart

Just another home run.  1-0 RM. 

I was driving and I pass up CNBC on my XM radio.  Jim Cramer is on.  I listened to him talking about BA and how it’s going to go to $400.  $400 is his price target and it’s a BUY BUY BUY!  I remember looking at BA earlier this week and thinking…this is a good short.  Today REALLY looks like a good short, which is why I was wondering why this idiot was telling people to buy.  Let’s look at the chart! 

We have a rising channel on the daily and today it broke.  That’s why I said it’s a good short.  It might go to $400, but with the way the market is going right now…I say it goes to that blue line you see there first.  You can buy this stock $24 cheaper and that may be a good entry.  It’s not my kind of trade, but if you want to try to buy there for a few, that’s a good entry.  I rarely show my hand this early, but here it is.  Short here at $324, 1st tgt $300 and then evaluate from there.  Stops are a set at re-entry of the channel. I guess I’ll be selling to people that listen to Cramer.   Let’s go 2-0 RM.  

Last but not least.  I thought earnings would do it.  It didn’t do shit.  I thought the Fed today would do it.  It didn’t do shit.  This market is converging.  It’s making higher lows, but no higher highs.  We’re tightening up and where we go is where you should go to.  The action the last few days had my Spidey senses go off.  I’m no longer bullish and I think we go lower.  I won’t make my move until the market says where it’s going, but I’m more inclined to say short than long.  

There are two trendlines going on here.  The bigger ones on the outside, and the smaller ones on the inside.  The smaller ones are on the shorter time frame and it looks like we’re resting on the bottom of that line. As that trend has gotten tighter, that’s why I’ve been suggesting to sell the rip and buy the dip.  It hits the top of the line and goes right back down.  EZPZ.  It is getting so tight, it will have to pick a direction and from there it will go to 2 other lines.  Since I’m thinking it will go down, it will hit the infamous 200 day moving average which is that light blue line.  It either bounces off of that, which after hitting it 3 times, we should go through it and then we hit the bottom purple trend line.  Where we go from there? Based on price action. 

You’re welcome. 

-RM 

Earnings Season…it’s the most wonderful time of the year. 

Well shit.  FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL.  All have reported along with others and with AMZN beating the shit out of estimates, we got rotation coming back into tech.  As I’ve mentioned earlier, commodities were leading a rally…that never works.  Today we saw buying.  It was so fucking boring today…it’s just the way I like it. Why? Because I was long from last night (with the exception of FB). I don’t play earnings, because that’s gambling.  I don’t like to gamble.  The odds are never with you.  The house always fucks you.  I lighten up before earnings.  I lightened up a lot on FB and gambled a few.  I lost.  

 It doesn’t happen often, and when I do lose, I like to keep those small. 

The only other stock I held through earnings was AMD.  I lightened up, as usual and I bought back more this morning.  

We’re still above support on the monthly level.  My price target is ~$20. 

Earnings are here and we’re in the meat of it all.  Today’s rally was led by tech and we should keep the momentum going into tomorrow after Amazon’s stellar report.  Up 10% in one day is just a damn sexy sight to see.  

So how boring was today?  So fucking boring we were arguing where the market was going and if we’re biased.  There is some concern as to where the market is going and I see where that concern can come from.  We’re about to converge on trendlines on the daily.  The two purple lines…they’re inching closer and closer and then the market breaks one of those, that is where we’re going to go.  

That is the case to be in cash.  

The case to be bullish, like me is to count ’em.  1. 2. 3.  Three times we hit a bottom (200 day moving average) and 3 times we came back up.  We hit that shit a 4th time, and bye bye. 

 

Market if we hit the 200 dma a 4th time. 

We are making lower lows, but we’re at the point now where we have to make a higher high and hold it.  We made a higher high before but the market got smoked.  Today is 26-Apr and the Fed meets 1-2 May.  We have 3 more trading days left and we’ll see if we can break out of a trendline before then.  Even though, I’m bullish, I have so much room I can easily exit and switch short to go where the market does.  I’m bullish, but I don’t mind admitting I’m wrong and switching sides to the short side.  For now, just keep buying the dip and selling the rip. 

In the meantime, I’m extra bullish on crude oil.  I want to see $75.  We’re at $68.  It’s a failure of a trade if it goes down to $64. 

-RM

I posted yesterday about my doubts setting in for the market.  The macro analyst in me kicked in and I was a little hesitant about buying the dip.  I had my stops in place. 

The market was forming a handle and it still looks okay…but something didn’t smell right.  Google posted good earnings.  Had a pop and fail very quickly in after market hours.  I woke up this morning and scanned the market. 

 

Obviously, NVDA looks like it can’t make a new high on the weekly, so I then look at the daily and then intraday.  I rarely make trades during the first 15 minutes.  On NVDA, where it opened, I expected a pop to resistance and then a nice drop.  That’s what happened. 

This was followed by, 

This is where we open on NFLX

The positions were getting started. 

 Getting comfortable. 

 Things start to move. 

The last bit before closing out for the day.  I may have gotten a little too excited about this market going to shit. 

    

I have closed out a lot of my positions. It was a nice day with a lot of momentum.  The selling actually came in on the market.  Volume picked up.  Market trolled some people.  Gotta be ready to take the other side.  Read the charts and do your homework.   

Note for earnings:

I am long AMD, but will take some off tomorrow going into earnings.  I rarely invest, but this will be my “long term” stock play that I look forward to holding for as long as I need to.  I don’t hold through earnings, but as a position trader I hold some and buy and sell around earnings.  

I am short FB. #DeleteFacebook should be #DelistFacebook.  I am so bearish on FB.  I got short on FB and haven’t looked back.  I rode the thing from 180 to 160 and am short again from 170.  I rarely ride things through earnings again, but I’m long some puts for FB and hope to see $135 and below.  

Earnings have been good.  Outlooks have been questionable…just like the market has.  Join in the chat to be part of the live market calls, analysis, and action.  

-RM

Doubt is setting in as earnings are coming out.  Some are good, but when you listen to the calls and read the reports, the reasons leave doubt.  

GOOGL reported a beat on EPS and Revenue.  Top line, bottom lines looked good.  Their other businesses had a jump of over 30% of revenue, but the market DGAF.  The 10 year treasury is inching towards 3% and people are starting to worry about inflation, more than before.  The Fed’s next meeting is May 2, and do we see another rate hike? 

So I said that the market that was range bound is waiting for earnings.  Well earnings are out and the market hasn’t moved much.  If anything, it shows signs of giant weakness.  The GOOGL earnings should have gotten a pop and kept us there, but instead it takes a pop for less than a second and then drops.  NFLX did the same thing, but it took longer for them to drop.  

It took less than a second for GOOGL to go from way in the green +$50 to-$7.  

Moves like this smell of a bearish market.  I am still bullish on Crude.  Gold has failed its breakout.  Silver seems to be the metal of choice.  The market can turn this around still, but the volume isn’t there and nobody is buying this dip.  Where did they go?  Maybe they went to BTC, because this shit ain’t moving.  

SP500 futures as of late are choppy and I’m having my doubts about this bounce. 

-RM

In any market you have to be selective.  You need to put your money into places that will get you gains…a lot of them and quickly. 

As I mentioned yesterday I was waiting for a drop to keep adding to my long market position.  While that didn’t happen today, the market didn’t do much of anything really.  I think that’s because there was a lot of buying happening, and we are setting up for another pop.  Well…I’m impatient.  I like to make my money work so I can make more in a fast way.  On the chat, HD was brought up earlier in the week.  So what do I do? I look at the chart…nah, not my trade.  But maybe? HD doesn’t usually move quick, so I don’t typically trade it. 

I look at the chart and see the setup mentioned.  I set an alert for what I think is the time to buy.  Yesterday, HD opened above support.  I wait for it to go down and I’m buying a little.  It starts to move and comes back right into my buying area.  I start buying some more. $174.77 is my average.  I’m looking for a move and I’m expecting a big one.  This morning, the bell rang and off to the races we went. Yep up, 3.13% for the day.  EZPZ.  Great trade.

Onto Crude.  Again, I mentioned yesterday , “I’m looking for new highs on crude” I woke up the morning and saw the setup.  People here would think they would be chasing.  They would also be shorting.  “Why would I buy the highs?”  Because! I buy high, and sell higher! We might have some resistance where we’re at, but I’m telling you…this thing is going to $74.  Ride that on the Crude futures contract and or some ETFs…like $GUSH (It was up +9.16% today)

 

Last but not least. Silver.  I mentioned yesterday (Hint, hint…read my shit every day) that I’m waiting for a gold setup.  Well I took a long on silver because it looked good.  It looked real good. 

This morning was a great morning btw.  I woke up and saw the silver futures.  Took one look at a place where people were exiting.  Really? Leaving so soon? Why?!?!?!  We’re above support!! Don’t go now, this train has more to go!  GTFbackON! 

Today was a monster day and not in names that you would expect.  Not in NFLX which reported good earnings.  Not in high beta, which are usually the leaders and big movers.  No, no, no.  You gotta be selective in this market and know what to trade.  

Feel free to join the trading room for real live calls, ask questions, and read my shit talking when I get bored.  

-RM

If this market dips, I’m buying.

I’m going to say it.  The bottom is in.  Sure we might have a down day.  I’m actually expecting a dip maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day, but soon.  I’m already long and looking to buy the dips.  We’ve broken the 2680 I mentioned in an earlier post. Earnings look good for everybody but the banks.  NFLX hit new highs and I’m waiting for the rest to follow.  This week we won’t have big names reporting, but we should the next few weeks and as long as earnings are good, I’m buying the dips.  

Adam Eve Dbl Btm ES

This is an Adam & Eve Double Bottom on SP500 futures.  I’m a buyer of this market and you should too.  We broke the long month like range bound channel and now we see more upside.  There isn’t clear skies ahead just yet, but I’m looking for 2750 and maybe even higher.  Again, this is all dependent upon earnings.  We’re still range bound, but for now we are range bound at the range above where we were at.  If you look at how the Adam & Eve Double Bottom plays out, you will see how this will play out. 

I was buying last night and I’m waiting for the dip, to get some more.  Lots of things set up to make higher highs today.  I’m looking for new highs on crude and I’m waiting for gold to set up. You want to keep an eye on those. There wasn’t much volume today, but as we get deeper into earnings season you will see volume pick up and we should be moving . We might set up for a selling event before the dead days of summer, or we may be looking at new all time highs.  I’m hoping for new highs so we all win. I’m buying this market.  I’m a buyer. 

If you want live calls and watch traders call entry points and trades visit our Slack channel

 

I’m a position trader.  I hate having to enter and exit trades in the same day.  Unfortunately, you have to adapt to the market that you’re in.  I hate having to babysit a position.  I have better shit to do with my time.  But like I pointed out in my previous post, you have to get ready to enter and exit in this market.  On top of that, the levels…gotta pay attention to the levels.  That’s why this morning started out like this: 

NVDA opened above support, so I start buying it up on the drop into the support line.  

As the price dropped

So I’m done and now I’m ready for it to take off.  The market was choppy today, but easy money was made. The risk is very little as I want to risk ~$2/share right below support.  My target is $5 above – the blue line.  Risk 1:Reward 2.5.  Looks good to me.  Here is the intraday chart. 

If you want to see me and some traders make some calls, join the chat.  Professional traders calling out numbers, targets, ideas and talking shit at each other when things don’t go our way.  The job can be boring looking at charts and seeing numbers…which is why I’m a position trader . But, if you’re gonna look at charts might as well have some some fun while you’re doing it.  

-RM