Earnings Season…it’s the most wonderful time of the year.
Well shit. FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL. All have reported along with others and with AMZN beating the shit out of estimates, we got rotation coming back into tech. As I’ve mentioned earlier, commodities were leading a rally…that never works. Today we saw buying. It was so fucking boring today…it’s just the way I like it. Why? Because I was long from last night (with the exception of FB). I don’t play earnings, because that’s gambling. I don’t like to gamble. The odds are never with you. The house always fucks you. I lighten up before earnings. I lightened up a lot on FB and gambled a few. I lost.
It doesn’t happen often, and when I do lose, I like to keep those small.
The only other stock I held through earnings was AMD. I lightened up, as usual and I bought back more this morning.
We’re still above support on the monthly level. My price target is ~$20.
Earnings are here and we’re in the meat of it all. Today’s rally was led by tech and we should keep the momentum going into tomorrow after Amazon’s stellar report. Up 10% in one day is just a damn sexy sight to see.
So how boring was today? So fucking boring we were arguing where the market was going and if we’re biased. There is some concern as to where the market is going and I see where that concern can come from. We’re about to converge on trendlines on the daily. The two purple lines…they’re inching closer and closer and then the market breaks one of those, that is where we’re going to go.
That is the case to be in cash.
The case to be bullish, like me is to count ’em. 1. 2. 3. Three times we hit a bottom (200 day moving average) and 3 times we came back up. We hit that shit a 4th time, and bye bye.
Market if we hit the 200 dma a 4th time.
We are making lower lows, but we’re at the point now where we have to make a higher high and hold it. We made a higher high before but the market got smoked. Today is 26-Apr and the Fed meets 1-2 May. We have 3 more trading days left and we’ll see if we can break out of a trendline before then. Even though, I’m bullish, I have so much room I can easily exit and switch short to go where the market does. I’m bullish, but I don’t mind admitting I’m wrong and switching sides to the short side. For now, just keep buying the dip and selling the rip.
In the meantime, I’m extra bullish on crude oil. I want to see $75. We’re at $68. It’s a failure of a trade if it goes down to $64.