TSLA reported earnings, BA got a stellar review this afternoon by Jim Cramer, and I’m getting ready to press my foot down on this market’s throat. 

This market continues to bore me.  I’m so fucking bored.  If you’re trading this shit and aren’t buying the dip, and selling the rip like I told you last Friday morning, “For now, just keep buying the dip and selling the rip.” then you’re experiencing lingchi (death by a 1000 cuts). 

I just realized today is Wednesday…wow these have been 4 of the longest fucking days ever!  So I almost never play earnings and how bored am I? Well today I decided to gamble a little on TSLA earnings. 

Let’s try a little here.

So apparently, TSLA shares are hard to locate and I could only get in on the small position.  Everybody wants to short TSLA, and it’s so crowded that when I want to stick the knife in some more and twist…I can’t. 

I then make my call like a batter going to bat and predicting where he’s going to hit the home run to.  

TSLA 15 Chart

Just another home run.  1-0 RM. 

I was driving and I pass up CNBC on my XM radio.  Jim Cramer is on.  I listened to him talking about BA and how it’s going to go to $400.  $400 is his price target and it’s a BUY BUY BUY!  I remember looking at BA earlier this week and thinking…this is a good short.  Today REALLY looks like a good short, which is why I was wondering why this idiot was telling people to buy.  Let’s look at the chart! 

We have a rising channel on the daily and today it broke.  That’s why I said it’s a good short.  It might go to $400, but with the way the market is going right now…I say it goes to that blue line you see there first.  You can buy this stock $24 cheaper and that may be a good entry.  It’s not my kind of trade, but if you want to try to buy there for a few, that’s a good entry.  I rarely show my hand this early, but here it is.  Short here at $324, 1st tgt $300 and then evaluate from there.  Stops are a set at re-entry of the channel. I guess I’ll be selling to people that listen to Cramer.   Let’s go 2-0 RM.  

Last but not least.  I thought earnings would do it.  It didn’t do shit.  I thought the Fed today would do it.  It didn’t do shit.  This market is converging.  It’s making higher lows, but no higher highs.  We’re tightening up and where we go is where you should go to.  The action the last few days had my Spidey senses go off.  I’m no longer bullish and I think we go lower.  I won’t make my move until the market says where it’s going, but I’m more inclined to say short than long.  

There are two trendlines going on here.  The bigger ones on the outside, and the smaller ones on the inside.  The smaller ones are on the shorter time frame and it looks like we’re resting on the bottom of that line. As that trend has gotten tighter, that’s why I’ve been suggesting to sell the rip and buy the dip.  It hits the top of the line and goes right back down.  EZPZ.  It is getting so tight, it will have to pick a direction and from there it will go to 2 other lines.  Since I’m thinking it will go down, it will hit the infamous 200 day moving average which is that light blue line.  It either bounces off of that, which after hitting it 3 times, we should go through it and then we hit the bottom purple trend line.  Where we go from there? Based on price action. 

You’re welcome. 

-RM 

Earnings Season…it’s the most wonderful time of the year. 

Well shit.  FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL.  All have reported along with others and with AMZN beating the shit out of estimates, we got rotation coming back into tech.  As I’ve mentioned earlier, commodities were leading a rally…that never works.  Today we saw buying.  It was so fucking boring today…it’s just the way I like it. Why? Because I was long from last night (with the exception of FB). I don’t play earnings, because that’s gambling.  I don’t like to gamble.  The odds are never with you.  The house always fucks you.  I lighten up before earnings.  I lightened up a lot on FB and gambled a few.  I lost.  

 It doesn’t happen often, and when I do lose, I like to keep those small. 

The only other stock I held through earnings was AMD.  I lightened up, as usual and I bought back more this morning.  

We’re still above support on the monthly level.  My price target is ~$20. 

Earnings are here and we’re in the meat of it all.  Today’s rally was led by tech and we should keep the momentum going into tomorrow after Amazon’s stellar report.  Up 10% in one day is just a damn sexy sight to see.  

So how boring was today?  So fucking boring we were arguing where the market was going and if we’re biased.  There is some concern as to where the market is going and I see where that concern can come from.  We’re about to converge on trendlines on the daily.  The two purple lines…they’re inching closer and closer and then the market breaks one of those, that is where we’re going to go.  

That is the case to be in cash.  

The case to be bullish, like me is to count ’em.  1. 2. 3.  Three times we hit a bottom (200 day moving average) and 3 times we came back up.  We hit that shit a 4th time, and bye bye. 

 

Market if we hit the 200 dma a 4th time. 

We are making lower lows, but we’re at the point now where we have to make a higher high and hold it.  We made a higher high before but the market got smoked.  Today is 26-Apr and the Fed meets 1-2 May.  We have 3 more trading days left and we’ll see if we can break out of a trendline before then.  Even though, I’m bullish, I have so much room I can easily exit and switch short to go where the market does.  I’m bullish, but I don’t mind admitting I’m wrong and switching sides to the short side.  For now, just keep buying the dip and selling the rip. 

In the meantime, I’m extra bullish on crude oil.  I want to see $75.  We’re at $68.  It’s a failure of a trade if it goes down to $64. 

-RM

President Xi Jinping speech saves the bull market.  Sends Dow up 400 points and S&P up 1.8%.  This story was followed by many touting that market was in a freefall after the raid on Donald Trump’s lawyer.  Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, said he’s never seen volatility like this before.  For the past 14 trading days (3 weeks) we have been trading within a range on the S&P futures (ESM18) between a high of 2679.75(27-Mar) and a low of 2552.00 (2-Apr).  That’s a range of about 5%.  Not super volatile per se, at least when putting it into the perspective of the last few dips and sharp upturns. But this is a great market for bulls and bears! 

You can make some great money buying the lows and selling the highs.  Shorting the highs and covering the lows.  This market is ideal for the old saying, “bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.”  You better know your support lines to know when to cover when you’re short and you better know your resistance lines to sell when you’re long. 

Today NFLX opened up above support at 302 and took off to 311.  Hit the resistance area and sold right back down to end the day at 303.67.  You could have made money buying the open and taking it to the resistance area of 310-311.  Shorted 310-311 and closed at EOD with a good profit.  How do you lose?  Well if you’re a pig about things and thought that the stock was going back to $324.  NFLX is about to report earnings next Monday (16-Apr).  

As earnings season begins, it’s important to keep this range on your charts.  It’s important because once we break out of this range, we will know where we’re going.  The market is undecided and if news or tweets don’t make it pick a direction, the earnings sure as hell will.  It will be the fuel that the market needs that will send it back soaring to highs if it breaks 2680 to the upside or falling flat on its face if we break the lows of 2550 area.  In the meantime, be nimble and don’t be attached to a position. Lock in profits and learn to call it a day. 

-RM