Turkey and its troubles threw a little Risk Off in the market Friday but the downside was contained. The S&P Futures tagged the 21day MA and reversed course to end the week only sightly down.
Inflation has been creeping up but still not enough to ring any alarm bells. Longer term view still remains bullish and a test of January all time highs are in the cards and not far away.
WTI Crude broke the wedge mentioned last week to the downside and is now below the 8&21 MAs. Friday saw some consolidation to the upside but so long as contained by those MAs the bias is to the downside. The next major support lies at the 200day which is lining up with a horizontal level at 64.50.
Copper was close to breaking out when pushed through key levels and moving averages but gradually pulled back as the Risk Off sentiment took over the market. The 2.70 level has provided support so the question will be if it does this time. The daily MACD has been creeping up but until a positive close the bias remains sell the rips with long attempts around the 2.7 area.
And the big winning trade of the week was Wheat. Along with other Ag commodities having extreme moves over the past months due to Tariffs, Wheat has been a beast. Until this week. Wheat was pressing channel resistance when we alerted a Trade Alert to sell. It took the week for the trade to pay out but it did nicely Friday with wheat down 3.2% on the day. With a MACD slowing and clear bearish RSI divergence, sell the rips is the course of action next week until the 21day MA is tagged and then reassess. It could pause and consolidate a little there but until proven otherwise, a test of channel support wouldn’t be a bad thing.