I believe CL is in the process of topping. There is no confirmation as of yet though but here is why I believe so. Today we have a spinning top daily candle today with bearish RSI divergence at the moment. Looking at the Ichimoku study the tenkan and kijun have flattened out and will pull price towards.

Looking at the 4hr we can more clearly see the RSI divergence and decreasing momentum as well as a rising wedge pattern – my favorite pattern.

Given the extreme Net Long positioning in WTI Crude at the moment, this adds to the extreme unwinding rising wedges typically see already as longs scramble to cover their positions further fueling the move down. 

Now the measured move of a rising wedge is just about 100% putting a target on a break down to $62. Could we grind higher? Sure but given the move in crude YTD and a lot of geopolitical risk already priced in, the risk to reward trade as I see it currently is the short side. If you want confirmation you can wait for a break of trend support to take a position and or add to it on a back test of said trend line if it happens. 

Crude is a highly manipulated commodity and nothing is for certain so use stop losses and be willing to accept the pattern is null if price and indicators are telling you so. In other words, you don’t ever want to marry oil, just date it. 

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